Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
QPR29%Burnley44%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Burnley creates 28% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
QPR ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
QPR at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches
Burnley away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
QPR attack 1.51 + Burnley defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.10
Burnley attack 1.31 + QPR defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Burnley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
- Burnley win just 9% of their away games
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Coventry
Ipswich
Millwall
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Hull City
Wrexham
Derby
Norwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield Utd
PrestonQPR
Watford
Stoke City
Portsmouth
Charlton
Blackburn
West Brom
Oxford United
Leicester
Sheffield WednesdayIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
QPR host Burnley on Tuesday, 3 November 2026 at 19:45. The match is part of the Championship 2025/2026 season.
Preview: QPR host Burnley
November 3, 2026: QPR take on Burnley in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
QPR host Burnley at Loftus Road.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.