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Burnley vs QPR — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
10/26/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Burnley57%
×Draw25%
QPR17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.56
QPR
0.73

Burnley creates 114% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 41 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.89
QPR
0.98

allows per match

Burnley
0.48
QPR
1.24

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
83%
Burnley or QPR
75%
Draw or QPR
43%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
30%
QPR wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
79%
Burnley 2+ goals
46%
Burnley 3+ goals
21%
QPR 1+ goals
52%
QPR 2+ goals
17%
QPR 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
77%
QPR (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

QPR away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.89 + QPR defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

QPR attack 0.98 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Burnley scores more
57%
level
25%
QPR scores more
17%

Burnley at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
C. RobertsBurnleyBurnley · D
8.5

Match Events

62'
D. Bennie← Ž. Celar
73'
Lucas Pires← B. Humphreys
73'
J. Rodríguez← J. Cullen
78'
Daniel Bennie
81'
E. Agyei← J. Anthony
81'
L. Andersen← I. Chair
81'
K. Morgan← P. Smyth
87'
A. Hountondji← J. Laurent
87'
A. Lloyd← K. Saito

Possession

75%Burnley

Shots

22Burnley

Pass accuracy

55%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyQPR
Overview
75%Possession25%
22Total Shots2
1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.08
16Corners1
7Fouls10
Shots
22Total Shots2
4On Target0
8Off Target1
10Blocked1
17Inside Box1
5Outside Box1
Passing
75%Possession25%
698Total Passes242
623Accurate Passes177
89%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
0.44Goals Prevented0.44
Discipline
7Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Burnley vs QPR

Burnley and QPR drew 0-0 in Championship on October 26, 2024.

Burnley controlled possession (75%) and registered 22 shots to 2.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.