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Burnley vs QPR — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
B. Manuel 76'
C. Martin 87'
S. Field 58'
4/22/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Burnley57%
×Draw25%
QPR17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.56
QPR
0.73

Burnley creates 114% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 41 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.89
QPR
0.98

allows per match

Burnley
0.48
QPR
1.24

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
83%
Burnley or QPR
75%
Draw or QPR
43%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
30%
QPR wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
79%
Burnley 2+ goals
46%
Burnley 3+ goals
21%
QPR 1+ goals
52%
QPR 2+ goals
17%
QPR 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
77%
QPR (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

QPR away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.89 + QPR defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

QPR attack 0.98 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Burnley scores more
57%
level
25%
QPR scores more
17%

Burnley at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. DunneQPRQPR · D
8.3

Match Events

46'
E. Laird← A. Drewe
57'
J. Rodríguez← A. Barnes
57'
S. Twine← J. Guðmunds­son
58'
S. Field
59'
S. Armstrong← A. Adomah
63'
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
68'
L. Amos← T. Iroegbunam
76'
M. Obafemi← I. Maatsen
76'
B. Manuel↳ C. Roberts
80'
Sinclair Armstrong
85'
C. Martin← L. Dykes
87'
C. Martin↳ J. Lowe
89'
Ethan Laird
90+2'
Scott Twine

Possession

81%Burnley

Shots

21Burnley

Pass accuracy

62%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyQPR
Overview
81%Possession19%
21Total Shots6
11Corners4
5Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots6
6On Target5
8Off Target1
7Blocked0
14Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
81%Possession19%
663Total Passes153
592Accurate Passes83
89%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Championship: Burnley 1–2 QPR

QPR beat Burnley 2-1 in Championship on April 22, 2023.

Goals: S. Field (58'), B. Manuel (76'), C. Martin (87').

Burnley controlled possession (81%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.