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Burnley vs QPR — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
S. Vokes 61'
5/2/2016ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Burnley57%
×Draw25%
QPR17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.56
QPR
0.73

Burnley creates 114% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 41 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.89
QPR
0.98

allows per match

Burnley
0.48
QPR
1.24

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
83%
Burnley or QPR
75%
Draw or QPR
43%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
30%
QPR wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
79%
Burnley 2+ goals
46%
Burnley 3+ goals
21%
QPR 1+ goals
52%
QPR 2+ goals
17%
QPR 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
77%
QPR (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

QPR away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.89 + QPR defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

QPR attack 0.98 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Burnley scores more
57%
level
25%
QPR scores more
17%

Burnley at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. HeatonBurnleyBurnley · G
7.6

Match Events

4'
Sebastian Polter
45'
Cole Kpekawa
61'
S. Vokes↳ D. Jones
63'
C. Washington← J. Hoilett
70'
A. El Khayati← M. Petrasso
71'
B. Gladwin← S. Polter
76'
A. Barnes← A. Gray

Possession

50%Burnley

Shots

7Burnley

Pass accuracy

48%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyQPR
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots11
3Corners5
0Fouls0
Shots
7Total Shots11
2On Target6
2Off Target1
3Blocked4
5Inside Box3
2Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
363Total Passes370
204Accurate Passes223
56%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
0Fouls0
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Burnley 1 – 0 QPR

Burnley beat QPR 1-0 in Championship on May 2, 2016.

Goals: S. Vokes (61').

Burnley controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.