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Qingdao Red Lions vs Dalian Zhixing — League Two 2026

Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
7/29/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Qingdao Tiantai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions28%
×Draw29%
Dalian Zhixing42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Red Lions
0.93
Dalian Zhixing
1.20

Dalian Zhixing creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions
1.04
Dalian Zhixing
1.55

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions
0.85
Dalian Zhixing
0.82

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par
Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Dalian Zhixing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw
58%
Qingdao Red Lions or Dalian Zhixing
71%
Draw or Dalian Zhixing
72%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
10%
Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
61%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
24%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
7%
Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
70%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
34%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
40%
Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 1.04 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.55 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more
28%
level
29%
Dalian Zhixing scores more
42%

Dalian Zhixing at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Qingdao Red Lions 1–0 Dalian Zhixing

Qingdao Red Lions beat Dalian Zhixing 1-0 in League Two on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Qingdao Tiantai Stadium in Qingdao.