Dalian Zhixing 4–0 Qingdao Red Lions

Dalian Zhixing

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qingdao Red Lions

7/7/2024

League One · Round 16Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Zhixing60%

×Draw23%

Qingdao Red Lions17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian ZhixingExpected goals in this matchQingdao Red Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.85

Dalian Zhixing

1.82

Qingdao Red Lions

0.85

Dalian Zhixing creates 114% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.87

creates per match

0.90

0.80

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.87

Qingdao Red Lions

0.90

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing

0.80

Qingdao Red Lions

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw

83%

Dalian Zhixing or Qingdao Red Lions

77%

Draw or Qingdao Red Lions

40%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

35%

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

84%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

54%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

27%

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

57%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

21%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

78%

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.87 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.82

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.90 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more

60%

level

23%

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

17%

Dalian Zhixing at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dalian Zhixing 4–0 Qingdao Red Lions

Dalian Zhixing beat Qingdao Red Lions 4-0 in League One on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Dalian.

Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Red Lions — League One 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

League One: Dalian Zhixing 4–0 Qingdao Red Lions