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Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Red Lions — League Two 2026

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
6/10/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dalian Zhixing48%
×Draw32%
Qingdao Red Lions20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.13
Qingdao Red Lions
0.61

Dalian Zhixing creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.18
Qingdao Red Lions
0.96

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
0.27
Qingdao Red Lions
1.07

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par
Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
80%
Dalian Zhixing or Qingdao Red Lions
68%
Draw or Qingdao Red Lions
52%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
21%
Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
68%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
31%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
11%
Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
46%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
13%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
71%
Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.18 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.96 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
48%
level
32%
Qingdao Red Lions scores more
20%

Dalian Zhixing at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Qingdao Red Lions

Dalian Zhixing beat Qingdao Red Lions 2-1 in League Two on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Jinzhou Stadium in Dalian.