Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Qingdao Red Lions vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — League One 2026

Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
3/23/2024League OneLeague One · Round 3Qingdao Tiantai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions26%
×Draw25%
Chongqing Tongliang Long48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Red Lions
1.10
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.58

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions
0.97
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.63

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions
1.53
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.23

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par
Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Chongqing Tongliang Long →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw
52%
Qingdao Red Lions or Chongqing Tongliang Long
75%
Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long
74%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
10%
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
67%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
30%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
10%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
79%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
47%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
35%
Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.97 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.63 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more
26%
level
25%
Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
48%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Red Lions vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Qingdao Red Lions beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 in League One on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Qingdao Tiantai Stadium in Qingdao.