Chongqing Tongliang Long 0–0 Qingdao Red Lions

Chongqing Tongliang Long

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qingdao Red Lions

10/15/2023

League Two · Promotion Group - 7Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long62%

×Draw23%

Qingdao Red Lions15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chongqing Tongliang LongExpected goals in this matchQingdao Red Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.70

Chongqing Tongliang Long

1.71

Qingdao Red Lions

0.70

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 144% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

2.36

creates per match

0.96

0.45

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long

2.36

Qingdao Red Lions

0.96

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long

0.45

Qingdao Red Lions

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw

85%

Chongqing Tongliang Long or Qingdao Red Lions

77%

Draw or Qingdao Red Lions

38%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+

35%

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals

82%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals

51%

Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals

24%

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

50%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

16%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)

80%

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 2.36 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.96 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more

62%

level

23%

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

15%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Tian Xiangyu← Cheng Yetong

62'

Lian Chen← Sun Xipeng

62'

Yao Guanyu← Gao Yixuan

73'

Gong Yunyang← Dilxat Ablimit

74'

Sun Weijia← Ding Yunfeng

74'

Liu Xuanchen← Zu Pengchao

90+2'

Chen Fuhai← Wei Chaolun

Chongqing

Qingdao

30

33

26

37

5

27

▼

Pengchao

25

▼

Chaolun

46

▼

Yunfeng

28

▼

Yixuan

14

Da

11

▼

41

31

3

57

14

8

▼

Ablimit

19

▼

53

52

17

50

Manager: Lin Lin

36'▲Tian Xiangyu←▼Cheng Yetong

73'▲Gong Yunyang←▼Dilxat Ablimit

Chongqing Tongliang Long substitutes

18Xiangyu51Yunyang21Yixuan16Weicheng55Pan5Jiwei13Kerui11Qing56Zhicheng37Jappar2Ting29Yang

Manager: Sun Xinbo

62'▲Lian Chen←▼Sun Xipeng

62'▲Yao Guanyu←▼Gao Yixuan

74'▲Sun Weijia←▼Ding Yunfeng

74'▲Liu Xuanchen←▼Zu Pengchao

90+2'▲Chen Fuhai←▼Wei Chaolun

Qingdao Red Lions substitutes

17Chen32Guanyu42Weijia39Xuanchen13Fuhai6Hao23Yi56Guanqiao10Jianwen9Zheng57Zhenghong58Hanyu