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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Red Lions — League One 2026

Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
7/21/2024League OneLeague One · Round 18Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long58%
×Draw25%
Qingdao Red Lions18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.64
Qingdao Red Lions
0.79

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 108% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.50
Qingdao Red Lions
0.90

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.67
Qingdao Red Lions
1.77

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par
Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw
82%
Chongqing Tongliang Long or Qingdao Red Lions
75%
Draw or Qingdao Red Lions
42%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
31%
Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
81%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
49%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
23%
Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
55%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
19%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
76%
Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.50 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.90 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
58%
level
25%
Qingdao Red Lions scores more
18%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Red Lions

Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Red Lions drew 1-1 in League One on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Tongliang Long Stadium in Chongqing.