Qingdao Jonoon 1–1 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Meizhou Kejia

Wellington Silva 81' (pen)

J. Ngom Mbekeli 12'

4/27/2025

Super League · Round 9Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon51%

×Draw22%

Meizhou Kejia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.33

Qingdao Jonoon

1.91

Meizhou Kejia

1.33

Qingdao Jonoon creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

1.03

1.63

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.44

Meizhou Kejia

1.03

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.63

Meizhou Kejia

2.37

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.13scores less

Meizhou Kejia-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

73%

Qingdao Jonoon or Meizhou Kejia

78%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

49%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

29%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

85%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

57%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

30%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

74%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

38%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

66%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.37 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.91

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

51%

level

22%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

27%

Qingdao Jonoon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Wellington Silva

Qingdao Jonoon · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

Feifan Jia

12'

J. Ngom Mbekeli↳ Rodrigo Henrique

33'

38'

43'

45+1'

46'

Wellington Silva← Wong Ho-Chun Anson

56'

Lin Chuangyi← Luo Senwen

57'

Song Wenjie← Jin Yonghao

62'

Liu Yun← M. Cheukoua

62'

Wei Zhiwei← Zhong Haoran

65'

Che Shiwei← Jia Feifan

72'

Zh.W. Wei

81'

Wellington SilvaPenalty

82'

Wei Xiangxin← Yang Chaosheng

90+6'

Long Song

90+5'

Quanbo Guo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoMeizhou

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots11

1.62Expected Goals (xG)2.09

5Corners2

18Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots11

2On Target1

8Off Target8

7Blocked2

12Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

423Total Passes305

340Accurate Passes206

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

9Offsides2