Meizhou Kejia 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qingdao Jonoon

Yue Tze-Nam 44'

10/4/2025

Super League · Round 24Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Meizhou Kejia58%

×Draw22%

Qingdao Jonoon21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.10

Meizhou Kejia

1.98

Qingdao Jonoon

1.10

Meizhou Kejia creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.73

Qingdao Jonoon

1.00

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.20

Qingdao Jonoon

2.23

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Meizhou Kejia-0.20scores less

Qingdao Jonoon-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

79%

Meizhou Kejia or Qingdao Jonoon

78%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

42%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

34%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

86%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

59%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

31%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

67%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

30%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

74%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.20 · 17 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.73 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.98

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

58%

level

22%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

21%

Meizhou Kejia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Yue Tze-Nam

Meizhou Kejia · D

7.7

Match Events

13'

Liu Jiashen

26'

Long Song

44'

Yue Tze-Nam↳ Chen Xuhuang

46'

Zhang Chi← Song Long

46'

Li Hailong← Wei Suowei

61'

Rodrigo Henrique

61'

Didier Lamkel Zé

67'

Yang Yihu← Wang Jia'nan

67'

Zhong Haoran← Chen Xuhuang

73'

Song Wenjie← Lin Chuangyi

73'

Luo Senwen← E. Saric

78'

Tian Ziyi← Liu Yun

81'

Liu Junshuai← Liu Jiashen

87'

Yang Chaosheng← Yue Tze-Nam

90+7'

90+6'

90+5'

90+11'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouQingdao

Overview

31%Possession69%

11Total Shots17

3Corners6

12Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots17

2On Target3

5Off Target11

4Blocked3

6Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

31%Possession69%

246Total Passes516

155Accurate Passes423

63%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1