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Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2026

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
E. Sarić 90+2', 29'
M. Boakye 79' (pen)
Cheng Yuelei 36' (OG)
J. Uzuegbunam 53', 4'
7/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon51%
×Draw22%
Meizhou Kejia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
1.91
Meizhou Kejia
1.33

Qingdao Jonoon creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.44
Meizhou Kejia
1.03

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.63
Meizhou Kejia
2.37

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.13scores less
Meizhou Kejia-0.28scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
73%
Qingdao Jonoon or Meizhou Kejia
78%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
49%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
29%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
85%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
57%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
30%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
74%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
38%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
66%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 29 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.37 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.91

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
51%
level
22%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
27%

Qingdao Jonoon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
J. UzuegbunamMeizhou KejiaMeizhou Kejia · F
8.7

Match Events

4'
J. Uzuegbunam↳ T. Conraad
23'
Martin Boakye
29'
E. Sarić↳ E. Kangwa
36'
Cheng YueleiOwn goal
38'
Yuelei Cheng
46'
Tian Ziyi← Pan Ximing
46'
Rao Weihui← Chen Zhechao
47'
Liang Shi
53'
J. Uzuegbunam
59'
Zhang Wei← Diego Lopes
79'
Yang Chaosheng← J. Uzuegbunam
79'
M. BoakyePenalty
83'
Yin Hongbo← Ye Chugui
85'
Yin Congyao← Shi Liang
90+3'
Elvis Sarić
90+1'
Liao Junjian
90'
Liu Junshuai← E. Kangwa
90'
Chen Chunxin← Li Hailong
90+4'
Sha Yibo← Wang Chien-Ming
90+2'
E. Sarić

Possession

49%Qingdao

Shots

18Qingdao

Pass accuracy

51%Qingdao

Statistics

QingdaoMeizhou
Overview
49%Possession51%
18Total Shots18
6Corners9
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots18
8On Target6
8Off Target7
2Blocked5
10Inside Box13
8Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
326Total Passes331
269Accurate Passes264
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Super League: Qingdao Jonoon 4–2 Meizhou Kejia

Qingdao Jonoon beat Meizhou Kejia 4-2 in Super League on July 28, 2024.

Goals: J. Uzuegbunam (4', 53'), E. Sarić (29', 90+2'), Cheng Yuelei (36' o.g.), M. Boakye (79' pen).

Meizhou Kejia controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 18.

The match was played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Qingdao.