Qingdao Jonoon 0–2 Henan Jianye: Result & Stats

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Henan Jianye

1 Feng Boyuan 90+11'

Bruno Nazário 54'

8/10/2024

Super League · Round 22Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon42%

×Draw24%

Henan Jianye35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.48

Qingdao Jonoon

1.64

Henan Jianye

1.48

Qingdao Jonoon creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.74

creates per match

1.47

1.50

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.74

Henan Jianye

1.47

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.50

Henan Jianye

1.54

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.57scores less

Henan Jianye-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

65%

Qingdao Jonoon or Henan Jianye

76%

Draw or Henan Jianye

58%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

21%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

81%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

49%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

23%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

77%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

43%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

54%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.54 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.74 + Henan Jianye defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Henan Jianye attack 1.47 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

42%

level

24%

Henan Jianye scores more

35%

Qingdao Jonoon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Bruno Nazário

Henan Jianye · F

8.5

Match Events

46'

Chen Chunxin← Zheng Long

46'

Ding Haifeng← Ke Zhao

51'

Gu Cao← Iago Maidana

54'

Bruno Nazário

58'

Sha Yibo← Li Hailong

62'

Yang Yilin← Zhong Yihao

62'

Yang Kuo← Yeljan Shinar

69'

Zhong Jinbao← Song Long

79'

Feng Boyuan← Huang Zichang

79'

Li Songyi← He Guan

80'

Hu Jinghang← Diego Lopes

90+11'

Feng Boyuan

90+11'

1 Feng Boyuan↳ Bruno Nazário

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoHenan

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots11

2.05Expected Goals (xG)2.56

8Corners6

14Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots11

4On Target4

9Off Target5

5Blocked2

13Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

430Total Passes385

352Accurate Passes315

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2