Henan Jianye 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qingdao Jonoon

F. Acheampong 50'

4/21/2024

Super League · Round 7Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Henan Jianye62%

×Draw20%

Qingdao Jonoon18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.08

Henan Jianye

2.17

Qingdao Jonoon

1.08

Henan Jianye creates 101% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.10

creates per match

1.10

1.07

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Henan Jianye

2.10

Qingdao Jonoon

1.10

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.07

Qingdao Jonoon

2.23

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.03on par

Qingdao Jonoon-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

82%

Henan Jianye or Qingdao Jonoon

80%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

38%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

39%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

89%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

64%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

36%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

66%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

29%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

77%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.23 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 2.10 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.17

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.10 + Henan Jianye defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

62%

level

20%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

18%

Henan Jianye at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

Iago Maidana

Henan Jianye · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

Li Songyi← Gu Cao

46'

Đ. Denić← Liu Bin

46'

Hu Jinghang← Zhong Jinbao

46'

Chen Chunxin← Wang Chien-Ming

50'

F. Acheampong↳ N. Čović

60'

Yang Yilin← Huang Zichang

71'

Zhang Wei← Long Wei

90+7'

Jiamin Xu

90+4'

Niu Ziyi← F. Acheampong

90+1'

Ke Zhao← Xu Haofeng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HenanQingdao

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots8

2.26Expected Goals (xG)1.22

11Corners4

9Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots8

6On Target2

4Off Target3

6Blocked3

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

373Total Passes310

288Accurate Passes222

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1