Henan Jianye 3–1 Qingdao Jonoon: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Qingdao Jonoon

F. Acheampong 79'

Zhong Yihao 71'

Lucas Maia 65'

Jin Yonghao 25'

4/20/2025

Super League · Round 8Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Henan Jianye62%

×Draw20%

Qingdao Jonoon18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.08

Henan Jianye

2.17

Qingdao Jonoon

1.08

Henan Jianye creates 101% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.10

creates per match

1.10

1.07

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Henan Jianye

2.10

Qingdao Jonoon

1.10

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.07

Qingdao Jonoon

2.23

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.03on par

Qingdao Jonoon-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

82%

Henan Jianye or Qingdao Jonoon

80%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

38%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

39%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

89%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

64%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

36%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

66%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

29%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

77%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.23 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 2.10 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.17

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.10 + Henan Jianye defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

62%

level

20%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

18%

Henan Jianye at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Wang Shangyuan

Henan Jianye · M

7.7

Match Events

15'

Nikola Radmanovac

25'

Jin Yonghao↳ Song Wenjie

27'

Liu Junshuai

41'

Felippe Cardoso

46'

Yang Yilin← Shinar Yeljan

46'

Bruno Nazario← He Chao

46'

Lin Chuangyi← Jin Yonghao

56'

Xinyu Liu

56'

Zheng Long← Wellington Silva

59'

Zhong Yihao← Liu Xinyu

65'

Sha Yibo← Chen Chunxin

65'

Lucas Maia↳ Iago Maidana

71'

Zhong Yihao↳ Wang Shangyuan

74'

Lucas Maia

79'

F. Acheampong↳ Liu Bin

81'

O. Gerbig← Felippe Cardoso

84'

Che Shiwei← Song Wenjie

85'

Jia Feifan← Luo Senwen

88'

Niu Ziyi← F. Acheampong

90+2'

Yihao Zhong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HenanQingdao

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots4

0.88Expected Goals (xG)0.13

5Corners1

22Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots4

3On Target1

7Off Target1

1Blocked2

8Inside Box1

3Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

403Total Passes359

311Accurate Passes261

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Discipline

22Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1