Qingdao Jonoon 0–3 Hangzhou Greentown

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

A. Mitrita 90', 69'

Y. Wang 47'

6/25/2025

Super League · Round 15Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon46%

×Draw23%

Hangzhou Greentown31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.41

Qingdao Jonoon

1.77

Hangzhou Greentown

1.41

Qingdao Jonoon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.49

creates per match

1.44

1.38

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.49

Hangzhou Greentown

1.44

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.38

Hangzhou Greentown

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

69%

Qingdao Jonoon or Hangzhou Greentown

77%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

54%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

25%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

83%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

53%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

26%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

76%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

41%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

60%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.05 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.49 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.44 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

46%

level

23%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

31%

Qingdao Jonoon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Mitrita

Hangzhou Greentown · F

9.0

Match Events

37'

Luo Senwen← Filipe Augusto

46'

A. Mitrita← D. Owusu-Sekyere

47'

Y. Wang↳ A. Mitrita

54'

Jin Yonghao← Che Shiwei

54'

Jia Feifan← Song Long

67'

Song Wenjie← Feng Boyuan

67'

Tao Qianglong← Y. Wang

69'

A. Mitrita↳ F. Andrijasevic

71'

Zhang Jiaqi← A. N'Doumbou

82'

Senwen Luo

90'

A. Mitrita

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoHangzhou

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots13

0.27Expected Goals (xG)1.79

1Corners6

11Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target8

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

2Inside Box11

5Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

529Total Passes523

451Accurate Passes447

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0