Hangzhou Greentown 4–3 Qingdao Jonoon

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Qingdao Jonoon

J. Kouassi 72'

Leonardo 62'

D. Owusu-Sekyere 28'

Sun Guowen 24'

M. Boakye 76', 53', 11'

8/3/2024

Super League · Round 21Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown62%

×Draw19%

Qingdao Jonoon19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.22

Hangzhou Greentown

2.34

Qingdao Jonoon

1.22

Hangzhou Greentown creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

2.35

creates per match

1.07

1.36

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

2.35

Qingdao Jonoon

1.07

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.36

Qingdao Jonoon

2.33

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown-0.35scores less

Qingdao Jonoon+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

81%

Hangzhou Greentown or Qingdao Jonoon

81%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

38%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

40%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

90%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

67%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

41%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

70%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

34%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

77%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.35 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.34

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.07 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

62%

level

19%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

19%

Hangzhou Greentown at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Andrijašević

Hangzhou Greentown · F

9.5

Match Events

11'

M. Boakye↳ E. Sarić

18'

Wei Long

24'

Sun Guowen↳ F. Andrijašević

28'

D. Owusu-Sekyere↳ Yao Junsheng

37'

Yue Xin

37'

Martin Boakye

46'

Sha Yibo← Li Hailong

46'

Chen Chunxin← Wang Chien-Ming

53'

M. Boakye↳ E. Kangwa

62'

Zhong Jinbao← Diego Lopes

62'

Leonardo↳ Yue Xin

69'

Wu Wei← Yao Junsheng

72'

J. Kouassi↳ F. Andrijašević

73'

Zhang Wei← E. Kangwa

76'

M. Boakye↳ E. Sarić

84'

Wang Dongsheng← Yue Xin

84'

Gao Di← D. Owusu-Sekyere

86'

Zheng Long← Long Wei

90+4'

Wang Yudong← J. Kouassi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HangzhouQingdao

Overview

64%Possession36%

45Total Shots6

3.41Expected Goals (xG)0.75

10Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

45Total Shots6

14On Target3

12Off Target2

19Blocked1

26Inside Box6

19Outside Box0

Passing

64%Possession36%

519Total Passes295

466Accurate Passes227

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves10

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1