Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Hangzhou Greentown58%
Qingdao Jonoon22%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hangzhou Greentown creates 70% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hangzhou Greentown ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.48 · 5 matches
Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.23 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.14 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.19
Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.10 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Hangzhou Greentown at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
SHANGHAI SIPG
Shanghai Shenhua
Chengdu Better City
Beijing Guoan
Shandong Luneng
Tianjin TedaHangzhou Greentown
Yunnan Yukun
Qingdao Youth Island
Henan Jianye
Dalian Zhixing
Sichuan Jiuniu
Wuhan Three TownsQingdao Jonoon
Meizhou Kejia
Changchun YataiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Hangzhou Greentown host Qingdao Jonoon on Tuesday, 14 July 2026 at 11:35. The match is part of the Super League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-2 in Super League on July 14, 2026.
Goals: A. Mitrita (24'), M. Tolic (50'), N. Andjelkovic (58'), M. Edjouma (71' pen), Tao Qianglong (90+6').
Hangzhou Greentown controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 19.
The match was played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Huizhou.