Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 Odra Opole: Result & Stats

Puszcza Niepołomice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Odra Opole

5/6/2023

I Liga · Round 30Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice43%

×Draw27%

Odra Opole30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puszcza NiepołomiceExpected goals in this matchOdra Opole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.11

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.39

Odra Opole

1.11

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 138 away

1.18

creates per match

1.08

1.14

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.18

Odra Opole

1.08

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.14

Odra Opole

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Odra Opole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw

70%

Puszcza Niepołomice or Odra Opole

73%

Draw or Odra Opole

57%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

20%

Odra Opole wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

75%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

40%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

16%

Odra Opole 1+ goals

67%

Odra Opole 2+ goals

30%

Odra Opole 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

59%

Odra Opole (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

43%

level

27%

Odra Opole scores more

30%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 Odra Opole

Puszcza Niepołomice beat Odra Opole 1-0 in I Liga on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

I Liga: Puszcza Niepołomice 1–0 Odra Opole