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Odra Opole vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
10/9/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Odra Opole39%
×Draw27%
Puszcza Niepołomice33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.28
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.16

Odra Opole creates 10% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 103 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
67%
Odra Opole or Puszcza Niepołomice
73%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
61%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
17%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
72%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
37%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
14%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
69%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
32%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
54%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Opole scores more
39%
level
27%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
33%

Odra Opole at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Odra Opole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Odra Opole 2–3 Puszcza Niepołomice

Puszcza Niepołomice beat Odra Opole 3-2 in I Liga on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Opole.