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Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
8/26/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 6Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice56%
×Draw23%
ŁKS Łódź21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.86
ŁKS Łódź
1.05

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 77% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
0.64

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
2.25

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
79%
Puszcza Niepołomice or ŁKS Łódź
77%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
44%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
32%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
84%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
55%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
28%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
65%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
28%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
73%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.86

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
56%
level
23%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
21%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź

Puszcza Niepołomice beat ŁKS Łódź 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.