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ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
11/8/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

ŁKS Łódź45%
×Draw26%
Puszcza Niepołomice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.49
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.14

ŁKS Łódź creates 31% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.07
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
71%
ŁKS Łódź or Puszcza Niepołomice
74%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
55%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
22%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
77%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
44%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
19%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
68%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
32%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
61%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
45%
level
26%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
29%

ŁKS Łódź at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: ŁKS Łódź 0–3 Puszcza Niepołomice

Puszcza Niepołomice beat ŁKS Łódź 3-0 in I Liga on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Lodz.