ŁKS Łódź 3–2 Puszcza Niepołomice: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Puszcza Niepołomice

3/3/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 23Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

ŁKS Łódź44%

×Draw25%

Puszcza Niepołomice31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.27

ŁKS Łódź

1.54

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.27

ŁKS Łódź creates 21% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

1.26

creates per match

0.76

1.77

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.26

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.76

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.77

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

69%

ŁKS Łódź or Puszcza Niepołomice

75%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

56%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

22%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

79%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

45%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

20%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

72%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

36%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

58%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

44%

level

25%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

31%

ŁKS Łódź at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff