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Puskás II vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Puskás II
Puskás II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
7/30/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 1Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Puskás II39%
×Draw25%
III. Kerületi TUE36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskás II
1.50
III. Kerületi TUE
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Puskás II
1.82
III. Kerületi TUE
1.67

allows per match

Puskás II
1.16
III. Kerületi TUE
1.17

finishing

Puskás II+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskás II ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puskás II or draw
64%
Puskás II or III. Kerületi TUE
75%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
61%

Winning margin

Puskás II wins by 2+
19%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Puskás II 1+ goals
78%
Puskás II 2+ goals
44%
Puskás II 3+ goals
19%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
76%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
41%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Puskás II (draw refunded)
52%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskás II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskás II attack 1.82 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.67 + Puskás II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puskás II scores more
39%
level
25%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
36%

Puskás II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Puskás II 0–1 III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Puskás II 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna in Felcsút.