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III. Kerületi TUE vs Puskás II — NB III - Northwest 2019

III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puskás II
Puskás II
11/18/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 16Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

III. Kerületi TUE44%
×Draw24%
Puskás II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

III. Kerületi TUE
1.65
Puskás II
1.36

III. Kerületi TUE creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

III. Kerületi TUE
2.13
Puskás II
1.60

allows per match

III. Kerületi TUE
1.13
Puskás II
1.18

finishing

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par
Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

III. Kerületi TUE ↓

Puskás II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

III. Kerületi TUE or draw
68%
III. Kerületi TUE or Puskás II
76%
Draw or Puskás II
56%

Winning margin

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
23%
Puskás II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
81%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
49%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
23%
Puskás II 1+ goals
74%
Puskás II 2+ goals
39%
Puskás II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
58%
Puskás II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

III. Kerületi TUE at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.13 + Puskás II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.65

Puskás II attack 1.60 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

III. Kerületi TUE scores more
44%
level
24%
Puskás II scores more
32%

III. Kerületi TUE at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: III. Kerületi TUE 0–1 Puskás II

Puskás II beat III. Kerületi TUE 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Szőnyi úti Stadion in Budapest.