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III. Kerületi TUE vs Puskás II — NB III - Southwest 2019

III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Puskás II
Puskás II
2/12/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 21Hévízi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

III. Kerületi TUE54%
×Draw23%
Puskás II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

III. Kerületi TUE
1.88
Puskás II
1.18

III. Kerületi TUE creates 59% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 67 away

creates per match

III. Kerületi TUE
2.51
Puskás II
1.48

allows per match

III. Kerületi TUE
0.87
Puskás II
1.25

finishing

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par
Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

III. Kerületi TUE ↓

Puskás II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

III. Kerületi TUE or draw
76%
III. Kerületi TUE or Puskás II
77%
Draw or Puskás II
46%

Winning margin

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
31%
Puskás II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
85%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
56%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
29%
Puskás II 1+ goals
69%
Puskás II 2+ goals
33%
Puskás II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
69%
Puskás II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

III. Kerületi TUE at home — creates 2.51, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.51 + Puskás II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Puskás II attack 1.48 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

III. Kerületi TUE scores more
54%
level
23%
Puskás II scores more
24%

III. Kerületi TUE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: III. Kerületi TUE 1–2 Puskás II

Puskás II beat III. Kerületi TUE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Hévízi úti Stadion in Budapest.