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Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest — League #271 2026

Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
D. Lukacs 90' (pen)
J. Fameyeh 79'
Z. Kerezsi 83'
A. Molnar 59'
5/15/2026League #271League #271 · Round 33Pancho Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Puskas Academy54%
×Draw24%
MTK Budapest22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskas Academy
1.66
MTK Budapest
0.96

Puskas Academy creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Puskas Academy
1.31
MTK Budapest
0.83

allows per match

Puskas Academy
1.08
MTK Budapest
2.00

finishing

Puskas Academy+0.00on par
MTK Budapest+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskas Academy ↓

MTK Budapest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Puskas Academy or draw
78%
Puskas Academy or MTK Budapest
76%
Draw or MTK Budapest
46%

Winning margin

Puskas Academy wins by 2+
29%
MTK Budapest wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Puskas Academy 1+ goals
81%
Puskas Academy 2+ goals
49%
Puskas Academy 3+ goals
23%
MTK Budapest 1+ goals
62%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
25%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)
71%
MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskas Academy at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

MTK Budapest away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskas Academy attack 1.31 + MTK Budapest defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

MTK Budapest attack 0.83 + Puskas Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Puskas Academy scores more
54%
level
24%
MTK Budapest scores more
22%

Puskas Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Puskas Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
D. LukacsPuskas AcademyPuskas Academy · F
8.2

Match Events

29'
Martin Kern
41'
Adrian Zeljković
46'
Z. Magyar← M. Kern
50'
Tamás Kádár
58'
Gábor JurekPenalty confirmed
59'
A. Molnar
68'
Michael Okeke
69'
J. Fameyeh← A. Nemeth
69'
Z. Varga← M. Okeke
78'
B. Lehoczki← P. Szappanos
78'
M. Soisalo← Q. Maceiras
78'
Z. Kerezsi← H. Nemeth
78'
J. Plsek← G. Jurek
79'
J. Fameyeh↳ D. Lukacs
83'
Z. Kerezsi
86'
V. Vitalyos← I. Atrok
90+1'
Roland Szolnoki
90+2'
V. Gorog← A. Molnar
90'
D. LukacsPenalty

Possession

43%Puskas

Shots

13Puskas

Pass accuracy

48%Puskas

Statistics

PuskasMTK
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots13
6Corners4
17Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target6
6Off Target3
3Blocked4
9Inside Box5
4Outside Box8
Passing
43%Possession57%
336Total Passes473
267Accurate Passes403
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

League #271: Puskas Academy 2–2 MTK Budapest

Puskas Academy and MTK Budapest drew 2-2 in League #271 on May 15, 2026.

Goals: A. Molnar (59'), J. Fameyeh (79'), Z. Kerezsi (83'), D. Lukacs (90' pen).

MTK Budapest controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Pancho Arena.