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MTK Budapest vs Puskas Academy — League #271 2026

MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy
Z. Nagy 75' (pen)
11/30/2024League #271League #271 · Round 15Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

MTK Budapest44%
×Draw25%
Puskas Academy30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest
1.52
Puskas Academy
1.21

MTK Budapest creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest
1.50
Puskas Academy
1.09

allows per match

MTK Budapest
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.55

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par
Puskas Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

Puskas Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw
70%
MTK Budapest or Puskas Academy
75%
Draw or Puskas Academy
56%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+
22%
Puskas Academy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals
78%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
45%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
20%
Puskas Academy 1+ goals
70%
Puskas Academy 2+ goals
34%
Puskas Academy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
59%
Puskas Academy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Puskas Academy away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 1.50 + Puskas Academy defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Puskas Academy attack 1.09 + MTK Budapest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

MTK Budapest scores more
44%
level
25%
Puskas Academy scores more
30%

MTK Budapest at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91
Á. PécsiPuskas AcademyPuskas Academy · G
7.9

Match Events

11'
Ákos Markgráf
32'
Q. Maceiras← A. Markgráf
36'
Patrik Kovács
42'
Benedek Varju
50'
Roland Szolnoki
62'
A. Horváth← B. Végh
62'
Laros Duarte← J. Levi
75'
Z. NagyPenalty
76'
Quentin Maceiras
80'
Z. Stieber← R. Polievka
80'
Á. Molnár← R. Molnár
80'
K. Németh← M. Jurina
84'
Z. Kerezsi← M. Soisalo
84'
J. Plšek← L. Colley
85'
N. Antonov← P. Kovács
90+5'
Krisztián Németh
90+5'
Krisztián Németh
90+5'
Krisztián Németh

Possession

58%MTK

Shots

12MTK

Pass accuracy

52%MTK

Statistics

MTKPuskas
Overview
58%Possession42%
12Total Shots12
2Corners0
8Fouls21
Shots
12Total Shots12
5On Target2
2Off Target6
5Blocked4
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
556Total Passes397
470Accurate Passes308
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls21
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: MTK Budapest vs Puskas Academy

Puskas Academy beat MTK Budapest 1-0 in League #271 on November 30, 2024.

Goals: Z. Nagy (75' pen).

MTK Budapest controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion in Budapest.