Puskas Academy 1–1 MTK Budapest: Result & Stats

Puskas Academy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

MTK Budapest

J. Levi 42'

R. Molnár 38'

4/6/2025

League #271 · Round 26Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Puskas Academy54%

×Draw24%

MTK Budapest22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puskas AcademyExpected goals in this matchMTK Budapest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.96

Puskas Academy

1.66

MTK Budapest

0.96

Puskas Academy creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

0.83

1.08

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Puskas Academy

1.31

MTK Budapest

0.83

allows per match

Puskas Academy

1.08

MTK Budapest

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puskas Academy+0.00on par

MTK Budapest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskas Academy ↓

MTK Budapest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Puskas Academy or draw

78%

Puskas Academy or MTK Budapest

76%

Draw or MTK Budapest

46%

Winning margin

Puskas Academy wins by 2+

29%

MTK Budapest wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Puskas Academy 1+ goals

81%

Puskas Academy 2+ goals

49%

Puskas Academy 3+ goals

23%

MTK Budapest 1+ goals

62%

MTK Budapest 2+ goals

25%

MTK Budapest 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)

71%

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskas Academy at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

MTK Budapest away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskas Academy attack 1.31 + MTK Budapest defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

MTK Budapest attack 0.83 + Puskas Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Puskas Academy scores more

54%

level

24%

MTK Budapest scores more

22%

Puskas Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Puskas Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Levi

Puskas Academy · M

7.7

Match Events

38'

R. Molnár↳ Á. Molnár

42'

J. Levi

57'

A. Horváth← I. Bognár

63'

L. Colley← J. Plšek

72'

Tamás Kádár

74'

A. Favorov← U. Nissilä

74'

Z. Kerezsi← Q. Maceiras

74'

K. Németh← M. Jurina

80'

Georgiy Harutyunyan

81'

R. Polievka← R. Molnár

81'

V. Hei← Á. Molnár

81'

B. Végh← M. Kosznovszky

85'

Wojciech Golla

90+2'

B. Vékony← J. Levi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PuskasMTK

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots9

3Corners3

16Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target3

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

2Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

427Total Passes587

354Accurate Passes495

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0