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Puebla vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
E. Gómez 60', 19'
N. Deossa 72', 37'
S. Rondón 13'
9/21/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Puebla32%
×Draw24%
CF Pachuca44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.34
CF Pachuca
1.63

CF Pachuca creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.22
CF Pachuca
1.38

allows per match

Puebla
1.87
CF Pachuca
1.46

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
56%
Puebla or CF Pachuca
76%
Draw or CF Pachuca
68%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
14%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
74%
Puebla 2+ goals
39%
Puebla 3+ goals
15%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
80%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
48%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
42%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.22 + CF Pachuca defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

CF Pachuca attack 1.38 + Puebla defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puebla scores more
32%
level
24%
CF Pachuca scores more
44%

CF Pachuca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
N. DeossaCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
9.5

Match Events

13'
S. Rondón↳ S. Hernández
19'
E. Gómez
33'
Luis Quiñones
37'
N. Deossa↳ S. Barreto
60'
E. Gómez↳ B. Angulo
61'
F. Waller← D. de Buen
61'
A. Herrera← R. Castillo
65'
F. Gil← O. González
65'
Á. Mena← S. Hernández
72'
N. Deossa↳ O. Idrissi
75'
J. González← D. Álvarez
84'
L. García← P. González
84'
S. Ormeño← E. Gómez
86'
P. Pedraza← O. Idrissi
89'
Carlos Moreno
90+6'
A. Bautista← F. Gil

Possession

37%Puebla

Shots

10Puebla

Pass accuracy

47%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaCF
Overview
37%Possession63%
10Total Shots18
5Corners6
13Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots18
4On Target4
5Off Target7
1Blocked7
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box11
Passing
37%Possession63%
303Total Passes534
230Accurate Passes457
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Puebla vs CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca beat Puebla 3-2 in Liga MX on September 21, 2024.

Goals: S. Rondón (13'), E. Gómez (19', 60'), N. Deossa (37', 72').

CF Pachuca controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.