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CF Pachuca vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puebla
Puebla
E. Valencia 87'
V. Guzman 74'
J. R. Pachuca Martinez 78'
3/8/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

CF Pachuca60%
×Draw21%
Puebla19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
2.00
Puebla
1.03

CF Pachuca creates 94% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.68
Puebla
0.96

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.10
Puebla
2.33

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
81%
CF Pachuca or Puebla
79%
Draw or Puebla
40%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
36%
Puebla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
86%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
59%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
32%
Puebla 1+ goals
64%
Puebla 2+ goals
28%
Puebla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
76%
Puebla (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Puebla away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.68 + Puebla defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Puebla attack 0.96 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
60%
level
21%
Puebla scores more
19%

CF Pachuca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. ValenciaCF PachucaCF Pachuca · F
7.7

Match Events

3'
Eduardo Bauermann
20'
C. Sanchez
46'
A. Organista← L. Rey
49'
N. Diaz
54'
A. Organista
60'
V. Guzman← O. Idrissi
61'
C. Baltazar← K. Velasco
61'
E. Lozano← E. Gomez
66'
S. Rodriguez
69'
R. Lopez← S. Rodriguez
69'
E. Valencia← S. Rondon
74'
V. Guzman
76'
A. Canelo← E. Guerra
78'
C. Rivera
78'
J. R. Pachuca Martinez↳ C. Baltazar
82'
J. R. Pachuca Martinez
86'
L. Quinones← A. Dominguez
86'
A. Bautista← Kenedy
87'
E. Valencia↳ B. A. Garcia Caprizo
88'
O. Gonzalez← A. Ramirez
90+1'
F. Monarrez
90+4'
C. Moreno
90+4'
A. CaneloGoal Disallowed - Foul

Possession

40%CF

Shots

20CF

Pass accuracy

50%CF

Statistics

CFPuebla
Overview
40%Possession60%
20Total Shots11
1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.41
2Corners4
12Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots11
4On Target5
11Off Target4
5Blocked2
7Inside Box6
13Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
355Total Passes535
299Accurate Passes456
84%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
-0.79Goals Prevented-0.79
Discipline
12Fouls11
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 2–1 Puebla

CF Pachuca beat Puebla 2-1 in Liga MX on March 8, 2026.

Goals: V. Guzman (74'), J. R. Pachuca Martinez (78'), E. Valencia (87').

Puebla controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.