CF Pachuca 2–1 Puebla: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Puebla

John Kennedy 77', 67'

R. Marín 6'

2/27/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

CF Pachuca60%

×Draw21%

Puebla19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.03

CF Pachuca

2.02

Puebla

1.03

CF Pachuca creates 96% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

1.72

creates per match

0.96

1.10

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.72

Puebla

0.96

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.10

Puebla

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

81%

CF Pachuca or Puebla

79%

Draw or Puebla

40%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

36%

Puebla wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

87%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

60%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

33%

Puebla 1+ goals

64%

Puebla 2+ goals

28%

Puebla 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

76%

Puebla (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Puebla away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.72 + Puebla defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Puebla attack 0.96 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

60%

level

21%

Puebla scores more

19%

CF Pachuca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

John Kennedy

CF Pachuca · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

R. Marín↳ F. Waller

34'

Pedro Pedraza

46'

C. Sánchez← L. Rodríguez

46'

S. Homenchenko← P. Pedraza

50'

Raúl Castillo

60'

E. Rodríguez← O. González

60'

Gustavo Ferrareis← R. Castillo

63'

Gustavo Ferrareis

67'

John Kennedy↳ O. Idrissi

72'

Facundo WallerCard upgrade

73'

Facundo Waller

77'

John Kennedy↳ C. Sánchez

78'

82'

82'

82'

86'

J. López← John Kennedy

86'

E. Montiel← A. Bautista

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFPuebla

Overview

65%Possession35%

20Total Shots2

7Corners2

11Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots2

8On Target2

6Off Target0

6Blocked0

13Inside Box1

7Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

482Total Passes256

402Accurate Passes181

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4