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Puebla vs Atlas — Liga MX 2018

Puebla
Puebla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Atlas
Atlas
L. Cavallini 47'
E. Aguirre 23', 9'
7/20/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Puebla40%
×Draw26%
Atlas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.41
Atlas
1.27

Puebla creates 11% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 145 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.26
Atlas
1.06

allows per match

Puebla
1.47
Atlas
1.56

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
66%
Puebla or Atlas
74%
Draw or Atlas
60%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
19%
Atlas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
76%
Puebla 2+ goals
41%
Puebla 3+ goals
17%
Atlas 1+ goals
72%
Atlas 2+ goals
36%
Atlas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
54%
Atlas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + Atlas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlas attack 1.06 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puebla scores more
40%
level
26%
Atlas scores more
34%

Puebla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
E. AguirreAtlasAtlas · F
8.3

Match Events

9'
E. Aguirre↳ R. Lozano
23'
E. Aguirre↳ A. Mora
26'
Eduardo AguirreGoal confirmed
30'
Jeremy Márquez
37'
Lucas Cavallini
46'
J. González← A. Herrera
46'
R. Durán← P. González
47'
L. Cavallini
59'
S. Ormeño← L. Cavallini
68'
É. Zaldívar← V. Ríos
73'
Raúl Castillo
80'
L. Reyes← I. Domínguez
81'
M. García← J. Márquez
81'
Matheus Dória← E. Aguirre
82'
Gaddi Aguirre
86'
K. Velasco← Gustavo Ferrareis
87'
R. Fulgencio← J. Murillo
89'
Camilo Vargas

Possession

56%Puebla

Shots

16Puebla

Pass accuracy

53%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaAtlas
Overview
56%Possession44%
16Total Shots7
6Corners4
17Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots7
2On Target3
7Off Target3
7Blocked1
5Inside Box5
11Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
427Total Passes351
343Accurate Passes252
80%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Puebla vs Atlas

Atlas beat Puebla 2-1 in Liga MX on July 20, 2024.

Goals: E. Aguirre (9', 23'), L. Cavallini (47').

Puebla controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.