Atlas 1–0 Puebla: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Atlas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Puebla

U. Djurdjevic 8' (pen)

1/10/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Atlas43%

×Draw27%

Puebla30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.12

Atlas

1.40

Puebla

1.12

Atlas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 141 away

1.12

creates per match

1.05

1.19

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Atlas

1.12

Puebla

1.05

allows per match

Atlas

1.19

Puebla

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

70%

Atlas or Puebla

73%

Draw or Puebla

57%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

21%

Puebla wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

75%

Atlas 2+ goals

41%

Atlas 3+ goals

17%

Puebla 1+ goals

67%

Puebla 2+ goals

31%

Puebla 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

59%

Puebla (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Puebla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Puebla attack 1.05 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlas scores more

43%

level

27%

Puebla scores more

30%

Atlas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Gonzalez

Atlas · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

Diego GonzálezPenalty confirmed

8'

U. DjurdjevicPenalty

46'

C. Baltazar← A. Araos

60'

Eduardo Aguirre

60'

Edgar Guerra

64'

V. H. Rios De Alba← E. Aguirre

72'

I. Maestro← E. Lozano

72'

O. Gonzalez← E. Guerra

82'

E. Zaldivar← P. Ramirez

84'

B. Garnica← I. Moreno

85'

Diego González

85'

Fernando Monarrez

86'

Victor Rios

89'

A. Gonzalez← M. E. Garcia

90+1'

E. Mustre← E. Navarro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtlasPuebla

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots15

1Corners4

12Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target6

4Off Target6

1Blocked3

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

329Total Passes471

273Accurate Passes399

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Liga MX: Atlas 1–0 Puebla

Atlas beat Puebla 1-0 in Liga MX on January 10, 2026.

Goals: U. Djurdjevic (8' pen).

Puebla controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.

Atlas vs Puebla — Liga MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Atlas 1–0 Puebla