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Atlas vs Puebla — Liga MX 2018

Atlas
Atlas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Puebla
Puebla
U. Đurđević 90+9', 44' (pen)
D. González 90+3'
R. Marín 50'
E. Orona 33'
2/15/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Atlas43%
×Draw27%
Puebla30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.40
Puebla
1.12

Atlas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 141 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Atlas
1.19
Puebla
1.67

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
70%
Atlas or Puebla
73%
Draw or Puebla
57%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
21%
Puebla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
75%
Atlas 2+ goals
41%
Atlas 3+ goals
17%
Puebla 1+ goals
67%
Puebla 2+ goals
31%
Puebla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
59%
Puebla (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Puebla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Puebla attack 1.05 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlas scores more
43%
level
27%
Puebla scores more
30%

Atlas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
U. ĐurđevićAtlasAtlas · F
8.7

Match Events

10'
Jose Pachuca
33'
E. Orona↳ R. Castillo
35'
Dória
44'
U. ĐurđevićPenalty
45+2'
Jose Rivaldo Lozano
50'
R. Marín↳ R. Castillo
53'
L. Flores← P. Ramírez
65'
A. Herrera← J. Fedorco
65'
F. Arce← R. Castillo
68'
M. Cóccaro← R. Lozano
68'
J. Guzmán← C. Orrantía
69'
Diego González
84'
G. del Prete← Matheus Dória
85'
Fernando Arce Jr.
90+6'
Miguel Jiménez
90+1'
C. Mares← P. González
90+1'
T. Jaimes← E. Gómez
90+3'
D. González↳ J. Guzmán
90+9'
U. Đurđević

Possession

63%Atlas

Shots

19Atlas

Pass accuracy

54%Atlas

Statistics

AtlasPuebla
Overview
63%Possession37%
19Total Shots8
7Corners3
6Fouls24
Shots
19Total Shots8
6On Target2
12Off Target3
1Blocked3
8Inside Box5
11Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
431Total Passes258
351Accurate Passes179
81%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls24
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Liga MX: Atlas 3–2 Puebla

Atlas beat Puebla 3-2 in Liga MX on February 15, 2025.

Goals: E. Orona (33'), U. Đurđević (44' pen, 90+9'), R. Marín (50'), D. González (90+3').

Atlas controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.