PSTC Procopense 0–0 Laranja Mecânica

PSTC Procopense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Laranja Mecânica

5/25/2025

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Alvaro Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

PSTC Procopense37%

×Draw34%

Laranja Mecânica29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSTC ProcopenseExpected goals in this matchLaranja Mecânica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.79

PSTC Procopense

0.93

Laranja Mecânica

0.79

PSTC Procopense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

0.78

creates per match

0.69

0.89

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

PSTC Procopense

0.78

Laranja Mecânica

0.69

allows per match

PSTC Procopense

0.89

Laranja Mecânica

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSTC Procopense ↓

Laranja Mecânica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

PSTC Procopense or draw

71%

PSTC Procopense or Laranja Mecânica

66%

Draw or Laranja Mecânica

63%

Winning margin

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+

13%

Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals

61%

PSTC Procopense 2+ goals

24%

PSTC Procopense 3+ goals

7%

Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals

55%

Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals

19%

Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)

56%

Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSTC Procopense at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Laranja Mecânica away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSTC Procopense attack 0.78 + Laranja Mecânica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.69 + PSTC Procopense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PSTC Procopense scores more

37%

level

34%

Laranja Mecânica scores more

29%

PSTC Procopense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "PSTC Procopense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff