Laranja Mecânica 1–1 PSTC Procopense

Laranja Mecânica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PSTC Procopense

Unknown 53'

Unknown 90+3'

5/20/2023

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal José Chiappin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laranja Mecânica36%

×Draw28%

PSTC Procopense36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Laranja MecânicaExpected goals in this matchPSTC Procopense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

Laranja Mecânica

1.18

PSTC Procopense

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

0.90

creates per match

1.46

0.90

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Laranja Mecânica

0.90

PSTC Procopense

1.46

allows per match

Laranja Mecânica

0.90

PSTC Procopense

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laranja Mecânica ↓

PSTC Procopense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Laranja Mecânica or draw

64%

Laranja Mecânica or PSTC Procopense

72%

Draw or PSTC Procopense

64%

Winning margin

Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+

15%

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals

69%

Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals

33%

Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals

12%

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals

69%

PSTC Procopense 2+ goals

33%

PSTC Procopense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)

50%

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laranja Mecânica at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.90 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

PSTC Procopense attack 1.46 + Laranja Mecânica defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Laranja Mecânica scores more

36%

level

28%

PSTC Procopense scores more

36%

Laranja Mecânica at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Laranja Mecânica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff