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PSTC Procopense vs Laranja Mecânica — Paranaense - 2 2023

PSTC Procopense
PSTC Procopense
FT
1 – 0
Laranja Mecânica
Laranja Mecânica
5/15/2022Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Ubirajara Medeiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

PSTC Procopense40%
×Draw30%
Laranja Mecânica30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSTC Procopense
1.11
Laranja Mecânica
0.92

PSTC Procopense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

PSTC Procopense
1.13
Laranja Mecânica
0.78

allows per match

PSTC Procopense
1.06
Laranja Mecânica
1.09

finishing

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par
Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSTC Procopense ↓

Laranja Mecânica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

PSTC Procopense or draw
70%
PSTC Procopense or Laranja Mecânica
70%
Draw or Laranja Mecânica
60%

Winning margin

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+
16%
Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals
67%
PSTC Procopense 2+ goals
30%
PSTC Procopense 3+ goals
10%
Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals
60%
Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals
23%
Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)
57%
Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSTC Procopense at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Laranja Mecânica away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSTC Procopense attack 1.13 + Laranja Mecânica defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.78 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PSTC Procopense scores more
40%
level
30%
Laranja Mecânica scores more
30%

PSTC Procopense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PSTC Procopense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: PSTC Procopense 1–0 Laranja Mecânica

PSTC Procopense beat Laranja Mecânica 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Ubirajara Medeiros in Cornélio Procópio, Paraná.