PS Kemi Kings 0–0 Lahti: Result & Stats

PS Kemi Kings

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lahti

6/2/2018

Veikkausliiga · Round 12Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

PS Kemi Kings37%

×Draw27%

Lahti36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PS Kemi KingsExpected goals in this matchLahti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.22

PS Kemi Kings

1.25

Lahti

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 101 away

0.94

creates per match

0.93

1.50

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings

0.94

Lahti

0.93

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings

1.50

Lahti

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

Lahti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw

64%

PS Kemi Kings or Lahti

73%

Draw or Lahti

63%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

16%

Lahti wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

71%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

36%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

13%

Lahti 1+ goals

70%

Lahti 2+ goals

34%

Lahti 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

51%

Lahti (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.94 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lahti attack 0.93 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more

37%

level

27%

Lahti scores more

36%

PS Kemi Kings at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "PS Kemi Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff