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Lahti vs PS Kemi Kings — Veikkausliiga 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
7/4/2017VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 16Lahden Stadion (Lahti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Lahti49%
×Draw26%
PS Kemi Kings25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.54
PS Kemi Kings
1.02

Lahti creates 51% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.26
PS Kemi Kings
0.76

allows per match

Lahti
1.27
PS Kemi Kings
1.81

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

PS Kemi Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
75%
Lahti or PS Kemi Kings
74%
Draw or PS Kemi Kings
51%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
25%
PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
79%
Lahti 2+ goals
45%
Lahti 3+ goals
20%
PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
64%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
27%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
66%
PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.76 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lahti scores more
49%
level
26%
PS Kemi Kings scores more
25%

Lahti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Lahti 1–0 PS Kemi Kings

Lahti beat PS Kemi Kings 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on July 4, 2017.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion (Lahti).