Lahti 1–2 PS Kemi Kings: Result & Stats

Lahti

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

PS Kemi Kings

P. Osipov 66'

M. Lipin 72'

V. Şevcenco 71'

10/27/2018

Veikkausliiga · Round 33Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lahti51%

×Draw24%

PS Kemi Kings25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LahtiExpected goals in this matchPS Kemi Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.08

Lahti

1.67

PS Kemi Kings

1.08

Lahti creates 55% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.88

1.28

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Lahti

1.27

PS Kemi Kings

0.88

allows per match

Lahti

1.28

PS Kemi Kings

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

PS Kemi Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lahti or draw

75%

Lahti or PS Kemi Kings

76%

Draw or PS Kemi Kings

49%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+

27%

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals

81%

Lahti 2+ goals

50%

Lahti 3+ goals

23%

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

66%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

29%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)

67%

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 106 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.27 + PS Kemi Kings defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.88 + Lahti defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lahti scores more

51%

level

24%

PS Kemi Kings scores more

25%

Lahti at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

V. Salmikivi← I. Sadik

66'

P. Osipov

69'

J. Assehnoun← Henri Anier

71'

V. Şevcenco

72'

M. Lipin

83'

Kristian Heinolainen

83'

S. Hostikka← T. Jäntti

86'

Iiro Vanha

88'

D. Imeri← H. Demiri

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LahtiPS

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots4

3Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots4

7On Target3

4Off Target1

Passing

50%Possession50%

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

5Offsides4