PS Kemi Kings 1–2 JJK: Result & Stats

PS Kemi Kings

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

JJK

S. Mošnikov 63'

T. Kari 82'

A. Tapaninen 41'

9/10/2017

Veikkausliiga · Round 26Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PS Kemi Kings28%

×Draw25%

JJK47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PS Kemi KingsExpected goals in this matchJJK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.60

PS Kemi Kings

1.17

JJK

1.60

JJK creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

1.14

creates per match

1.60

1.59

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings

1.14

JJK

1.60

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings

1.59

JJK

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

JJK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

JJK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw

53%

PS Kemi Kings or JJK

75%

Draw or JJK

72%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

11%

JJK wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

69%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

33%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

11%

JJK 1+ goals

80%

JJK 2+ goals

47%

JJK 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

37%

JJK (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

JJK away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 1.14 + JJK defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

JJK attack 1.60 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more

28%

level

25%

JJK scores more

47%

JJK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

41'

63'

68'

75'

E. Zea← L. Nurmos

76'

S. Suoraniemi← T. Petrescu

82'

T. Kari

84'

A. Gullsten← R. Karjalainen

86'

S. Leppänen← G. Etock

88'

Guevara Munoz

90+3'

S. Vielma← T. Kari

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PSJJK

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots12

13Corners8

10Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots12

4On Target10

5Off Target2

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2