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JJK vs PS Kemi Kings — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JJK
JJK
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
9/2/2021Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 10Harjun stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

JJK76%
×Draw15%
PS Kemi Kings8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJK
2.49
PS Kemi Kings
0.69

JJK creates 261% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 20 away

creates per match

JJK
2.37
PS Kemi Kings
0.85

allows per match

JJK
0.53
PS Kemi Kings
2.60

finishing

JJK+0.00on par
PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

PS Kemi Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

JJK or draw
92%
JJK or PS Kemi Kings
85%
Draw or PS Kemi Kings
24%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+
54%
PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals
92%
JJK 2+ goals
71%
JJK 3+ goals
45%
PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
50%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
15%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)
90%
PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 2.37 + PS Kemi Kings defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.49

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.85 + JJK defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

JJK scores more
76%
level
15%
PS Kemi Kings scores more
8%

JJK at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: JJK 4–1 PS Kemi Kings

JJK beat PS Kemi Kings 4-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on September 2, 2021.

The match was played at Harjun stadion in Jyväskylä.