JJK 2–1 PS Kemi Kings: Result & Stats

JJK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PS Kemi Kings

G. Etock 90'

M. Lähitie 62'

R. Karjalainen 89'

8/13/2017

Veikkausliiga · Round 22Harjun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

JJK51%

×Draw22%

PS Kemi Kings27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JJKExpected goals in this matchPS Kemi Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.35

JJK

1.92

PS Kemi Kings

1.35

JJK creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

2.00

creates per match

0.95

1.75

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

JJK

2.00

PS Kemi Kings

0.95

allows per match

JJK

1.75

PS Kemi Kings

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JJK+0.00on par

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJK ↓

PS Kemi Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

JJK or draw

73%

JJK or PS Kemi Kings

78%

Draw or PS Kemi Kings

49%

Winning margin

JJK wins by 2+

29%

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

JJK 1+ goals

85%

JJK 2+ goals

57%

JJK 3+ goals

30%

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

74%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

39%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

JJK (draw refunded)

65%

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJK attack 2.00 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.92

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.95 + JJK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

JJK scores more

51%

level

22%

PS Kemi Kings scores more

27%

JJK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Suoraniemi← S. Vielma

58'

R. Karjalainen← J. Lehto

62'

65'

67'

81'

88'

88'

S. Leppänen← M. Lähitie

89'

R. Karjalainen

90+3'

Toni Tahvanainen← G. Etock

90'

G. Etock

Possession

Shots

Statistics

JJKPS

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots6

5Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots6

7On Target4

3Off Target2

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1