Příbram 2–1 Admira Praha: Result & Stats

Příbram

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Admira Praha

10/20/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 11Stadion Na Litavce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Příbram49%

×Draw23%

Admira Praha28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PříbramExpected goals in this matchAdmira Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.29

Příbram

1.77

Admira Praha

1.29

Příbram creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

1.87

creates per match

1.46

1.13

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Příbram

1.87

Admira Praha

1.46

allows per match

Příbram

1.13

Admira Praha

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par

Admira Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Admira Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Příbram or draw

72%

Příbram or Admira Praha

77%

Draw or Admira Praha

51%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+

26%

Admira Praha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals

83%

Příbram 2+ goals

53%

Příbram 3+ goals

26%

Admira Praha 1+ goals

72%

Admira Praha 2+ goals

37%

Admira Praha 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)

63%

Admira Praha (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Admira Praha away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 1.87 + Admira Praha defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

Admira Praha attack 1.46 + Příbram defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Příbram scores more

49%

level

23%

Admira Praha scores more

28%

Příbram at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Příbram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff