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Příbram vs Admira Praha — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Příbram
Příbram
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Admira Praha
Admira Praha
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Příbram37%
×Draw23%
Admira Praha40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram
1.63
Admira Praha
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Příbram
1.75
Admira Praha
1.88

allows per match

Příbram
1.50
Admira Praha
1.50

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par
Admira Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Admira Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Příbram or draw
60%
Příbram or Admira Praha
77%
Draw or Admira Praha
63%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+
18%
Admira Praha wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals
80%
Příbram 2+ goals
48%
Příbram 3+ goals
22%
Admira Praha 1+ goals
82%
Admira Praha 2+ goals
50%
Admira Praha 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)
48%
Admira Praha (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Admira Praha away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 1.75 + Admira Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Admira Praha attack 1.88 + Příbram defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Příbram scores more
37%
level
23%
Admira Praha scores more
40%

Admira Praha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Admira Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram vs Admira Praha

Příbram beat Admira Praha 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.