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Preussen Munster vs SV Darmstadt 98 — League #80 2026

Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
4/5/2014League #80League #80 · Round 33Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preussen Munster41%
×Draw26%
SV Darmstadt 9833%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preussen Munster
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.25

Preussen Munster creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

creates per match

Preussen Munster
1.54
SV Darmstadt 98
1.33

allows per match

Preussen Munster
1.17
SV Darmstadt 98
1.33

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par
SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw
67%
Preussen Munster or SV Darmstadt 98
74%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
59%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+
20%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals
76%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
42%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
18%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
71%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
36%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
56%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.54 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.33 + Preussen Munster defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preussen Munster scores more
41%
level
26%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
33%

Preussen Munster at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #80: Preussen Munster 0–2 SV Darmstadt 98

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Preussen Munster 2-0 in League #80 on April 5, 2014.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.