Preußen Münster 1–1 SV Darmstadt 98: Result & Stats

Preußen Münster

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SV Darmstadt 98

5/10/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 33Preussenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster38%

×Draw25%

SV Darmstadt 9837%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this matchSV Darmstadt 98

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.38

Preußen Münster

1.41

SV Darmstadt 98

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 119 away

1.15

creates per match

1.49

1.26

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

SV Darmstadt 98

1.49

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

SV Darmstadt 98

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

63%

Preußen Münster or SV Darmstadt 98

75%

Draw or SV Darmstadt 98

62%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

18%

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

76%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

41%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

17%

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

75%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

40%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

51%

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.67 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.49 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

38%

level

25%

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

37%

Preußen Münster at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff