SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 Preußen Münster: Result & Stats

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Preußen Münster

11/30/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 14Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9853%

×Draw23%

Preußen Münster24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.13

SV Darmstadt 98

1.79

Preußen Münster

1.13

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 34 away

1.79

creates per match

1.15

1.10

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.79

Preußen Münster

1.15

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.10

Preußen Münster

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Preußen Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

76%

SV Darmstadt 98 or Preußen Münster

77%

Draw or Preußen Münster

47%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

29%

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

83%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

53%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

26%

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

68%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

31%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

69%

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.79 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

53%

level

23%

Preußen Münster scores more

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff